VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +5.00 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
No price history is available for this range.
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 41.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 51.8¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.0 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.8%, gross edge 8.8%, slippage 0.8%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 5.7%. Marx fair UP is 40.2%.