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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+47.75 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 10:30 AMJul 28, 10:32 AMJul 28, 10:34 AMJul 28, 10:36 AMJul 28, 10:38 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T10:30:02.917Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T10:30:47.555Z59.5%0.0%-59.5 pp
2026-07-28T10:31:30.946Z59.5%59.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T10:31:34.911Z59.5%59.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T10:31:55.109Z59.5%0.0%-59.5 pp
2026-07-28T10:32:32.105Z99.5%0.0%-99.5 pp
2026-07-28T10:33:39.175Z59.5%59.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T10:33:55.617Z59.5%0.0%-59.5 pp
2026-07-28T10:35:44.484Z59.5%59.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T10:35:54.927Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T10:36:00.524Z99.5%0.0%-99.5 pp
2026-07-28T10:36:31.199Z99.5%0.0%-99.5 pp
2026-07-28T10:37:51.099Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T10:38:08.878Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T10:38:37.058Z100.0%99.5%-0.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge | AntiPredict