Ethereum Prediction Markets
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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+47.75 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 87.5%Marx Fair UP 87.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 10:10 AMJul 28, 10:12 AMJul 28, 10:13 AMJul 28, 10:15 AMJul 28, 10:16 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T10:10:34.988Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T10:10:37.210Z87.5%50.5%-37.0 pp
2026-07-28T10:10:59.989Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T10:12:39.810Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T10:13:00.403Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T10:13:00.687Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T10:14:30.810Z87.5%87.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T10:14:34.713Z87.5%87.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T10:14:57.277Z87.5%0.0%-87.5 pp
2026-07-28T10:16:34.569Z87.5%87.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge | AntiPredict