VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +45.01 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%52.7% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+45.01 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-13.8%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 49.5%Marx Fair UP 49.5%

Jul 28, 08:45 AMJul 28, 08:47 AMJul 28, 08:49 AMJul 28, 08:51 AMJul 28, 08:53 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-28T08:45:57.108Z	49.5%	49.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T08:50:43.368Z	49.5%	49.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T08:50:59.226Z	49.5%	0.0%	-49.5 pp
2026-07-28T08:51:02.151Z	49.5%	0.0%	-49.5 pp
2026-07-28T08:52:56.653Z	49.5%	49.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T08:53:33.105Z	0.0%	49.5%	+49.5 pp
2026-07-28T08:53:41.469Z	49.5%	49.5%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 52.7¢ with a net modeled edge of 45.0 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 55.2%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 4.2%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 42.6%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.