VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Jul 28, 08:10 AMJul 28, 08:12 AMJul 28, 08:13 AMJul 28, 08:15 AMJul 28, 08:17 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T08:10:15.929Z | 50.5% | 0.0% | -50.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T08:10:41.958Z | 40.5% | 0.0% | -40.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T08:11:30.820Z | 40.5% | 0.0% | -40.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T08:12:30.838Z | 40.5% | 40.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T08:13:30.894Z | 40.5% | 40.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T08:13:33.616Z | 40.5% | 40.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T08:13:55.512Z | 40.5% | 0.0% | -40.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T08:14:31.901Z | 40.5% | 0.0% | -40.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T08:15:30.937Z | 0.1% | 40.5% | +40.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T08:15:34.574Z | 40.5% | 40.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T08:15:39.154Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T08:15:56.832Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T08:16:30.816Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T08:17:31.033Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T08:17:33.719Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.