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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +29.40 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY48.5%68.6% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+29.40 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 50.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 06:55 AMJul 28, 06:57 AMJul 28, 07:00 AMJul 28, 07:02 AMJul 28, 07:04 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T06:55:32.151Z50.5%48.5%-2.0 pp
2026-07-28T06:55:34.533Z48.5%48.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T06:55:54.897Z48.5%0.0%-48.5 pp
2026-07-28T06:57:42.393Z48.5%48.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T06:57:50.422Z48.5%0.0%-48.5 pp
2026-07-28T06:59:30.841Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T06:59:39.567Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T06:59:51.988Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T06:59:52.218Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T07:00:31.715Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T07:01:30.895Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T07:01:34.513Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T07:02:30.875Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T07:03:30.801Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T07:04:30.795Z100.0%50.5%-49.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 48.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 68.6¢ with a net modeled edge of 29.4 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 68.6%, gross edge 32.0%, slippage 0.6%, fee 1.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 29.4%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +29.40 pp Edge | AntiPredict