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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+47.75 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 06:20 AMJul 28, 06:22 AMJul 28, 06:25 AMJul 28, 06:27 AMJul 28, 06:29 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T06:20:30.839Z84.5%50.5%-34.0 pp
2026-07-28T06:20:39.370Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T06:20:46.193Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T06:21:30.853Z84.5%0.0%-84.5 pp
2026-07-28T06:22:32.792Z84.5%84.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T06:22:36.761Z84.5%84.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T06:22:42.302Z84.5%0.0%-84.5 pp
2026-07-28T06:23:51.332Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T06:24:30.810Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T06:24:35.608Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T06:25:13.339Z99.5%0.0%-99.5 pp
2026-07-28T06:25:13.546Z99.5%0.0%-99.5 pp
2026-07-28T06:25:30.908Z99.5%0.0%-99.5 pp
2026-07-28T06:26:30.878Z99.5%0.0%-99.5 pp
2026-07-28T06:27:30.977Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T06:28:30.797Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T06:28:34.598Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T06:29:30.815Z100.0%99.5%-0.4 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge | AntiPredict