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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +45.71 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%52.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+45.71 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN85.9%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 06:15 AMJul 28, 06:17 AMJul 28, 06:19 AMJul 28, 06:21 AMJul 28, 06:23 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T06:15:32.555Z58.5%58.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T06:16:30.907Z58.5%58.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T06:16:34.784Z58.5%58.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T06:16:45.706Z58.5%0.0%-58.5 pp
2026-07-28T06:17:31.038Z58.5%0.0%-58.5 pp
2026-07-28T06:18:30.851Z58.5%58.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T06:18:39.608Z58.5%58.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T06:18:45.635Z58.5%0.0%-58.5 pp
2026-07-28T06:18:46.127Z58.5%0.0%-58.5 pp
2026-07-28T06:19:30.825Z58.5%0.0%-58.5 pp
2026-07-28T06:20:30.839Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T06:20:39.348Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T06:20:46.172Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T06:22:42.697Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T06:23:44.750Z0.0%0.5%+0.5 pp
2026-07-28T06:23:51.332Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 52.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 45.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 52.0%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 1.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 45.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +45.71 pp Edge | AntiPredict