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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+47.75 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN88.2%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 1.5%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 02:01 AMJul 28, 02:03 AMJul 28, 02:05 AMJul 28, 02:07 AMJul 28, 02:09 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T02:01:30.749Z42.5%42.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:01:44.499Z42.5%42.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:01:55.209Z42.5%0.0%-42.5 pp
2026-07-28T02:02:31.025Z42.5%0.0%-42.5 pp
2026-07-28T02:03:30.823Z2.5%2.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:03:45.142Z2.5%2.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:03:54.601Z2.5%0.0%-2.5 pp
2026-07-28T02:04:32.267Z2.5%0.0%-2.5 pp
2026-07-28T02:05:30.786Z0.1%42.5%+42.4 pp
2026-07-28T02:05:39.250Z42.5%42.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:05:49.172Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:05:55.937Z0.1%0.0%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:05:56.351Z0.1%0.0%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:06:30.811Z0.1%0.0%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:07:33.697Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:07:39.752Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:08:35.522Z0.0%0.1%+0.1 pp
2026-07-28T02:08:42.740Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:09:30.771Z1.5%0.1%-1.4 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge | AntiPredict