VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +43.99 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 10AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Jul 28, 02:00 PMJul 28, 02:16 PMJul 28, 02:31 PMJul 28, 02:47 PMJul 28, 03:02 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T14:46:34.730Z | 95.5% | 95.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:47:02.618Z | 95.5% | 0.0% | -95.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:47:02.987Z | 95.5% | 0.0% | -95.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:48:39.708Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:49:03.008Z | 99.5% | 0.0% | -99.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:49:30.916Z | 99.4% | 0.0% | -99.3 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:50:31.044Z | 99.4% | 99.3% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:50:34.334Z | 99.4% | 99.3% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:50:39.521Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:50:44.787Z | 99.4% | 99.3% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:51:03.431Z | 99.4% | 0.0% | -99.3 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:51:04.575Z | 99.4% | 0.0% | -99.3 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:51:31.078Z | 99.4% | 0.0% | -99.3 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:52:35.176Z | 99.4% | 99.3% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:52:35.380Z | 99.4% | 99.3% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:53:05.475Z | 99.4% | 0.0% | -99.3 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:53:32.246Z | 99.4% | 0.0% | -99.3 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:54:31.695Z | 99.8% | 99.8% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:54:39.736Z | 99.8% | 99.8% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:55:02.179Z | 99.8% | 0.0% | -99.8 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:55:31.219Z | 99.8% | 0.0% | -99.8 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:56:35.480Z | 99.8% | 99.8% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:57:04.879Z | 99.8% | 0.0% | -99.8 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:57:05.417Z | 99.8% | 0.0% | -99.8 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:58:39.384Z | 99.8% | 99.8% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:59:01.254Z | 99.8% | 0.0% | -99.8 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:00:37.911Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:00:40.634Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:01:02.111Z | 100.0% | 0.0% | -99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:02:35.501Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 53.8¢ with a net modeled edge of 44.0 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 7.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 54.0%, gross edge 46.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 43.8%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.