VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +47.25 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 8AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Jul 28, 12:00 PMJul 28, 12:16 PMJul 28, 12:32 PMJul 28, 12:48 PMJul 28, 01:04 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T12:47:04.643Z | 96.0% | 0.0% | -96.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:47:33.694Z | 96.0% | 0.0% | -96.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:48:31.050Z | 96.0% | 96.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:48:37.542Z | 96.0% | 96.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:49:03.974Z | 96.0% | 0.0% | -96.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:49:34.072Z | 99.7% | 0.0% | -99.7 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:50:31.420Z | 99.8% | 99.8% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:50:47.158Z | 99.8% | 99.8% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:51:13.248Z | 99.8% | 0.0% | -99.7 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:51:31.004Z | 99.8% | 0.0% | -99.7 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:52:37.828Z | 99.8% | 99.8% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:52:45.758Z | 99.8% | 99.8% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:52:58.079Z | 99.8% | 0.0% | -99.7 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:54:02.802Z | 99.8% | 99.8% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:54:30.953Z | 99.8% | 99.8% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:54:42.435Z | 99.8% | 99.8% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:55:32.441Z | 99.8% | 0.0% | -99.7 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:55:32.759Z | 99.8% | 0.0% | -99.7 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:56:30.919Z | 99.8% | 99.8% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:57:09.964Z | 99.8% | 99.8% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:57:31.326Z | 99.8% | 99.8% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:58:03.498Z | 99.8% | 0.0% | -99.7 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:58:04.142Z | 99.8% | 0.0% | -99.7 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:58:30.924Z | 100.0% | 0.0% | -99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:59:30.931Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:59:35.292Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:59:55.984Z | 100.0% | 0.0% | -99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:00:31.100Z | 100.0% | 0.0% | -99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:01:55.505Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:04:20.169Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 50.5¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.2 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.5%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.5%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.2%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.