VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
ETH 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +51.05 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 11PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Jul 28, 03:01 AMJul 28, 03:17 AMJul 28, 03:32 AMJul 28, 03:48 AMJul 28, 04:03 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T03:37:48.368Z | 51.5% | 76.5% | +25.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:38:54.330Z | 76.5% | 76.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:39:30.975Z | 76.5% | 76.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:39:34.925Z | 76.5% | 76.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:40:00.167Z | 76.5% | 0.0% | -76.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:40:30.829Z | 83.5% | 0.0% | -83.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:41:30.871Z | 83.5% | 0.0% | -83.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:42:30.814Z | 83.5% | 0.0% | -83.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:43:30.780Z | 83.5% | 0.0% | -83.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:44:30.817Z | 96.0% | 0.0% | -96.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:45:30.801Z | 96.0% | 0.0% | -96.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:46:32.060Z | 96.0% | 0.0% | -96.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:47:30.805Z | 96.0% | 0.0% | -96.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:48:30.877Z | 96.0% | 0.0% | -96.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:49:30.855Z | 96.0% | 0.0% | -96.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:50:31.019Z | 98.5% | 0.0% | -98.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:51:30.793Z | 98.5% | 0.0% | -98.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:52:34.355Z | 98.5% | 0.0% | -98.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:53:40.164Z | 99.4% | 0.0% | -99.4 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:55:00.622Z | 99.4% | 0.0% | -99.4 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:55:30.856Z | 99.4% | 0.0% | -99.4 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:56:30.898Z | 99.4% | 0.0% | -99.4 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:57:30.880Z | 99.4% | 0.0% | -99.4 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:58:30.745Z | 99.4% | 100.0% | +0.6 pp |
| 2026-07-28T03:59:30.890Z | 99.4% | 100.0% | +0.6 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:00:30.927Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:01:31.060Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:01:35.578Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:02:31.037Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:03:30.877Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 51.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 46.7¢ with a net modeled edge of 51.0 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 46.7%, gross edge 54.0%, slippage 0.7%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 51.0%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.