VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +5.67 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Jul 30, 10:31 PMJul 30, 10:35 PMJul 30, 10:40 PMJul 30, 10:44 PMJul 30, 10:49 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30T22:31:15.236Z | 51.5% | 51.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T22:31:22.942Z | 51.5% | 51.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T22:32:02.106Z | 51.5% | 100.0% | +48.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T22:32:25.040Z | 23.5% | 100.0% | +76.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T22:33:24.231Z | 23.5% | 23.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T22:33:33.053Z | 23.5% | 23.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T22:33:58.139Z | 23.5% | 100.0% | +76.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T22:34:23.027Z | 23.5% | 100.0% | +76.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T22:35:25.270Z | 37.5% | 100.0% | +62.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T22:36:34.140Z | 29.0% | 29.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T22:37:52.307Z | 29.0% | 29.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T22:38:09.825Z | 29.0% | 29.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T22:38:34.650Z | 29.0% | 29.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T22:39:29.384Z | 29.0% | 100.0% | +71.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T22:40:07.051Z | 29.0% | 100.0% | +71.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T22:40:27.986Z | 29.0% | 100.0% | +71.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T22:41:28.752Z | 3.5% | 29.0% | +25.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T22:41:55.821Z | 29.0% | 29.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T22:42:29.789Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T22:42:30.182Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T22:43:04.798Z | 3.5% | 100.0% | +96.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T22:43:28.374Z | 3.5% | 100.0% | +96.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T22:44:23.703Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T22:44:44.895Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T22:45:24.751Z | 0.1% | 20.5% | +20.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T22:45:32.118Z | 20.5% | 20.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T22:45:56.206Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-30T22:46:32.377Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-30T22:49:26.334Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 58.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 7.9%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 5.7%. Marx fair UP is 58.9%.