VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +25.36 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Jul 29, 11:15 PMJul 29, 11:20 PMJul 29, 11:24 PMJul 29, 11:28 PMJul 29, 11:32 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T23:16:05.451Z | 51.5% | 51.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:16:18.538Z | 51.5% | 2.6% | -48.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:16:43.788Z | 51.5% | 2.6% | -48.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:17:42.829Z | 51.5% | 51.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:17:58.718Z | 51.5% | 51.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:18:12.549Z | 51.5% | 5.4% | -46.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:18:51.345Z | 51.5% | 5.4% | -46.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:19:42.890Z | 51.5% | 51.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:20:03.907Z | 51.5% | 51.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:20:42.067Z | 51.5% | 17.6% | -33.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:20:51.744Z | 50.5% | 17.6% | -32.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:21:54.939Z | 98.5% | 98.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:22:23.434Z | 98.5% | 98.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:22:44.638Z | 98.5% | 98.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:23:42.845Z | 98.5% | 25.4% | -73.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:24:18.821Z | 98.5% | 25.4% | -73.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:24:42.292Z | 98.2% | 25.4% | -72.8 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:25:42.381Z | 98.5% | 98.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:25:50.654Z | 98.5% | 98.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:26:18.885Z | 98.5% | 13.2% | -85.3 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:26:42.670Z | 98.5% | 13.2% | -85.3 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:27:42.501Z | 98.5% | 98.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:27:58.289Z | 98.5% | 98.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:28:14.270Z | 98.5% | 7.1% | -91.3 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:28:44.700Z | 98.5% | 7.1% | -91.3 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:29:42.264Z | 98.5% | 98.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:30:01.050Z | 98.5% | 98.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:30:20.308Z | 98.5% | 6.8% | -91.6 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:30:43.707Z | 100.0% | 6.8% | -93.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:32:12.118Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 21.4% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 25.4 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 27.6%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 25.4%. Marx fair UP is 21.4%.