VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +54.54 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Jul 29, 01:45 PMJul 29, 01:50 PMJul 29, 01:54 PMJul 29, 01:58 PMJul 29, 02:02 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T13:45:52.166Z | 45.5% | 45.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:46:11.975Z | 45.5% | 100.0% | +54.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:46:41.899Z | 45.5% | 100.0% | +54.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:47:41.967Z | 45.5% | 45.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:47:50.120Z | 45.5% | 45.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:48:11.190Z | 45.5% | 100.0% | +54.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:48:49.323Z | 31.5% | 100.0% | +68.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:49:42.852Z | 42.5% | 100.0% | +57.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:51:41.875Z | 42.5% | 42.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:51:57.569Z | 42.5% | 42.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:52:41.894Z | 42.5% | 100.0% | +57.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:53:17.637Z | 42.5% | 100.0% | +57.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:53:43.691Z | 42.5% | 100.0% | +57.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:54:42.985Z | 42.5% | 42.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:55:04.155Z | 42.5% | 42.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:55:19.580Z | 42.5% | 100.0% | +57.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:55:43.182Z | 5.5% | 100.0% | +94.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:56:43.904Z | 0.1% | 5.5% | +5.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:56:54.899Z | 5.5% | 5.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:57:12.728Z | 5.5% | 100.0% | +94.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:59:01.249Z | 5.5% | 5.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:59:12.648Z | 5.5% | 100.0% | +94.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:00:56.886Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:01:16.423Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:01:41.795Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:02:41.816Z | 0.0% | 100.0% | +100.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 45.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 43.2¢ with a net modeled edge of 54.5 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 43.2%, gross edge 57.0%, slippage 0.2%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 54.5%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.