VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Jul 28, 09:01 PMJul 28, 09:06 PMJul 28, 09:10 PMJul 28, 09:15 PMJul 28, 09:19 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T21:01:40.820Z | 69.5% | 0.0% | -69.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:02:44.840Z | 69.5% | 0.0% | -69.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:03:41.065Z | 69.5% | 0.0% | -69.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:04:42.677Z | 69.5% | 0.0% | -69.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:05:40.713Z | 91.5% | 0.0% | -91.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:06:42.348Z | 91.5% | 0.0% | -91.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:07:41.334Z | 91.5% | 0.0% | -91.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:08:41.782Z | 79.5% | 0.0% | -79.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:09:40.645Z | 79.5% | 0.0% | -79.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:10:39.713Z | 95.5% | 0.0% | -95.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:11:38.712Z | 95.5% | 0.0% | -95.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:12:47.373Z | 95.5% | 0.0% | -95.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:13:43.544Z | 95.5% | 0.0% | -95.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:14:48.748Z | 100.0% | 0.0% | -99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:15:02.077Z | 99.5% | 0.0% | -99.4 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:15:40.833Z | 100.0% | 0.0% | -99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:16:39.907Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:17:15.663Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:17:45.546Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:18:38.766Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T21:19:41.683Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.