VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +45.38 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Jul 28, 07:45 PMJul 28, 07:50 PMJul 28, 07:54 PMJul 28, 07:59 PMJul 28, 08:04 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T19:45:11.221Z | 49.5% | 0.0% | -49.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:49:41.096Z | 78.5% | 0.0% | -78.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:51:39.734Z | 78.5% | 0.0% | -78.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:52:42.205Z | 78.5% | 0.0% | -78.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:53:41.145Z | 98.5% | 100.0% | +1.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:54:43.581Z | 98.5% | 100.0% | +1.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:55:38.908Z | 98.5% | 100.0% | +1.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:56:41.857Z | 98.5% | 100.0% | +1.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:58:01.105Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:59:51.720Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:00:48.546Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:01:01.226Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:01:43.881Z | 100.0% | 99.8% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:01:46.379Z | 99.9% | 99.8% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:01:51.953Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:02:48.583Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:03:38.869Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:04:42.645Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 52.4¢ with a net modeled edge of 45.4 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 52.8%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 1.8%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 44.9%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.