VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +45.17 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Jul 28, 03:45 PMJul 28, 03:50 PMJul 28, 03:54 PMJul 28, 03:59 PMJul 28, 04:04 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T15:49:44.348Z | 48.5% | 0.8% | -47.7 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:50:15.263Z | 42.5% | 0.8% | -41.7 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:51:15.179Z | 37.5% | 42.5% | +5.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:51:23.705Z | 42.5% | 42.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:51:38.532Z | 37.5% | 37.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:51:43.736Z | 37.5% | 0.0% | -37.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:52:15.141Z | 37.5% | 0.0% | -37.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:53:15.248Z | 46.5% | 37.5% | -9.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:53:19.612Z | 37.5% | 37.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:53:30.125Z | 46.5% | 46.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:53:45.644Z | 46.5% | 0.0% | -46.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:53:46.211Z | 46.5% | 0.0% | -46.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:54:15.128Z | 46.5% | 0.0% | -46.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:55:15.171Z | 46.5% | 46.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:55:19.771Z | 46.5% | 46.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:55:46.403Z | 46.5% | 0.0% | -46.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:56:15.347Z | 46.5% | 0.0% | -46.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:57:15.065Z | 46.5% | 46.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:57:23.389Z | 46.5% | 46.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:57:46.205Z | 46.5% | 0.0% | -46.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:58:17.478Z | 42.5% | 0.0% | -42.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:59:15.284Z | 42.5% | 42.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:59:23.283Z | 42.5% | 42.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:59:43.643Z | 42.5% | 0.0% | -42.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T16:00:16.056Z | 99.5% | 0.0% | -99.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T16:01:15.448Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T16:01:44.645Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T16:02:16.463Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T16:03:15.199Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T16:04:15.094Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.1% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 52.5¢ with a net modeled edge of 45.2 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 52.6%, gross edge 48.5%, slippage 1.6%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 44.6%. Marx fair UP is 0.5%.