VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Jul 28, 01:45 PMJul 28, 01:49 PMJul 28, 01:53 PMJul 28, 01:57 PMJul 28, 02:01 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T13:49:01.343Z | 13.5% | 0.0% | -13.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:49:30.955Z | 60.5% | 0.0% | -60.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:49:35.910Z | 44.5% | 0.0% | -44.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:50:30.944Z | 60.5% | 60.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:50:40.082Z | 60.5% | 60.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:51:00.820Z | 60.5% | 0.0% | -60.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:51:01.157Z | 60.5% | 0.0% | -60.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:51:30.915Z | 60.5% | 0.0% | -60.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:52:34.522Z | 60.5% | 60.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:52:41.686Z | 60.5% | 60.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:52:57.516Z | 60.5% | 0.0% | -60.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:54:05.631Z | 59.5% | 0.0% | -59.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:54:08.146Z | 12.5% | 0.0% | -12.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:54:16.533Z | 59.5% | 0.0% | -59.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:54:32.828Z | 66.5% | 72.5% | +6.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:54:41.963Z | 72.5% | 72.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:55:01.300Z | 66.5% | 66.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:55:30.879Z | 64.5% | 0.0% | -64.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:55:39.761Z | 66.5% | 0.0% | -66.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:56:32.014Z | 64.5% | 64.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:57:15.142Z | 64.5% | 64.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:57:31.134Z | 64.5% | 64.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:57:58.402Z | 64.5% | 0.0% | -64.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:58:31.095Z | 64.5% | 0.0% | -64.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:59:30.938Z | 64.5% | 64.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:59:40.096Z | 64.5% | 64.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:59:56.506Z | 64.5% | 0.0% | -64.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:59:56.947Z | 64.5% | 0.0% | -64.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:00:30.980Z | 99.5% | 0.0% | -99.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:01:53.845Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 47.3%, gross edge 53.0%, slippage 0.3%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 50.5%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.