VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 32.0%Marx Fair UP 32.0%
Jul 28, 11:30 AMJul 28, 11:34 AMJul 28, 11:39 AMJul 28, 11:44 AMJul 28, 11:48 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T11:33:58.384Z | 71.5% | 0.0% | -71.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:34:31.014Z | 71.5% | 0.0% | -71.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:35:30.866Z | 71.5% | 71.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:35:34.824Z | 71.5% | 71.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:35:58.022Z | 71.5% | 0.0% | -71.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:36:31.007Z | 71.5% | 0.0% | -71.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:37:35.823Z | 71.5% | 71.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:37:43.224Z | 71.5% | 72.5% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:37:45.812Z | 72.5% | 72.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:37:57.672Z | 71.5% | 71.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:38:44.612Z | 63.5% | 0.0% | -63.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:38:58.757Z | 72.5% | 0.0% | -72.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:39:59.721Z | 85.5% | 85.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:40:12.068Z | 80.5% | 80.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:40:56.632Z | 63.5% | 63.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:41:12.011Z | 63.5% | 63.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:41:50.913Z | 19.5% | 19.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:41:55.243Z | 19.5% | 19.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:42:23.074Z | 19.5% | 0.0% | -19.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:42:30.972Z | 19.5% | 0.0% | -19.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:43:30.993Z | 19.5% | 19.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:44:05.611Z | 19.5% | 19.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:44:30.955Z | 19.5% | 19.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:44:57.410Z | 19.5% | 0.0% | -19.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:45:31.050Z | 19.5% | 0.0% | -19.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:46:30.937Z | 19.5% | 19.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:46:34.555Z | 19.5% | 19.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:47:32.144Z | 21.5% | 19.5% | -2.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:48:30.857Z | 32.0% | 32.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:48:58.158Z | 32.0% | 32.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.9%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 0.9%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 45.8%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.