VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
ETH 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +7.49 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Jul 28, 09:30 AMJul 28, 09:34 AMJul 28, 09:38 AMJul 28, 09:42 AMJul 28, 09:46 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T09:31:32.810Z | 50.0% | 0.0% | -50.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:32:30.885Z | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:32:35.156Z | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:33:01.568Z | 50.0% | 0.0% | -50.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:33:31.975Z | 65.5% | 0.0% | -65.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:34:31.025Z | 55.5% | 63.5% | +8.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:34:39.207Z | 63.5% | 63.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:34:57.779Z | 55.5% | 0.0% | -55.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:35:30.853Z | 33.5% | 0.0% | -33.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:36:30.821Z | 33.5% | 33.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:36:34.233Z | 33.5% | 33.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:36:39.086Z | 40.5% | 40.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:36:44.233Z | 33.5% | 33.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:37:00.207Z | 33.5% | 0.0% | -33.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:37:39.109Z | 33.5% | 0.0% | -33.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:39:21.083Z | 34.0% | 34.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:40:32.149Z | 30.5% | 34.0% | +3.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:40:47.178Z | 34.0% | 34.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:41:30.572Z | 30.5% | 30.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:41:31.141Z | 30.5% | 30.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:42:31.023Z | 30.5% | 0.0% | -30.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:42:58.305Z | 30.5% | 0.0% | -30.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:43:30.884Z | 30.5% | 0.0% | -30.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:44:30.993Z | 30.5% | 30.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:44:35.313Z | 30.5% | 30.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:44:57.143Z | 30.5% | 0.0% | -30.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:45:30.939Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:45:34.258Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:46:30.853Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T09:46:59.988Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 30.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 91.5¢ with a net modeled edge of 7.5 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 9.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 91.5%, gross edge 10.0%, slippage 1.5%, fee 0.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 7.5%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.