Dota 2: 1win vs OG - Game 1 Winner
Ends: Aug 1, 2026, 17:30 UTCMarket data: Aug 1, 2026, 14:55 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
1WIN probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01T14:34:49.063Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T14:41:00.871Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T14:46:43.063Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T14:55:57.181Z | 0.1% | - | — |
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the Dota 2 match between 1win and OG in the 1win Essence Group B, initially scheduled for August 1 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "1win" if 1win win Game 1 against OG. This market will resolve to "OG" if OG win Game 1 against 1win. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.