Dota 2: 1win vs OG - Game 1 Winner
Ends: Aug 1, 2026, 17:30 UTCMarket data: Aug 1, 2026, 14:25 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
1WIN probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01T12:52:46.095Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T12:58:02.625Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T13:03:06.695Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T13:11:28.517Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T13:16:39.624Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T13:25:05.082Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T13:30:21.044Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T13:35:29.891Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T13:41:05.173Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T13:47:15.283Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T13:53:02.440Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T13:58:17.662Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T14:03:36.510Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T14:10:14.905Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T14:16:22.506Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T14:24:27.887Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T14:25:44.795Z | 0.1% | - | — |
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the Dota 2 match between 1win and OG in the 1win Essence Group B, initially scheduled for August 1 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "1win" if 1win win Game 1 against OG. This market will resolve to "OG" if OG win Game 1 against 1win. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.