Iran leadership change by July 31?
Ends: Jul 31, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 28, 2026, 16:38 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T03:55:44.294Z | 0.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T04:26:02.436Z | 0.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T04:51:17.134Z | 0.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T05:16:33.794Z | 0.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T05:46:53.621Z | 0.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T06:12:08.948Z | 0.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T06:37:27.204Z | 0.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T07:07:49.098Z | 0.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T07:33:08.471Z | 0.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T07:58:49.321Z | 0.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:24:11.377Z | 0.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:54:43.511Z | 0.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:20:08.906Z | 0.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:45:38.999Z | 0.6% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:16:13.713Z | 0.6% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:41:56.275Z | 0.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:07:12.528Z | 0.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:37:34.599Z | 0.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:02:55.069Z | 0.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:28:24.563Z | 0.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T13:01:39.060Z | 0.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T13:27:04.117Z | 0.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T13:52:19.207Z | 0.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T14:17:45.477Z | 0.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T14:48:24.095Z | 0.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:14:09.506Z | 0.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:40:44.454Z | 0.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T16:11:13.039Z | 0.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T16:36:43.411Z | 0.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T16:38:41.986Z | 0.7% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.