Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
Ends: Sep 20, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Sep 15, 2026, 23:04 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22T17:59:17.398Z | 25.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-22T19:56:00.932Z | 25.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-23T00:51:42.428Z | 25.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-23T04:53:17.988Z | 25.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-23T09:44:05.310Z | 25.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T16:09:06.855Z | 27.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T18:51:07.884Z | 26.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T23:04:13.981Z | 26.5% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.