Bitcoin Up or Down on August 14?
Ends: Aug 14, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 14, 2026, 12:54 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14T09:08:36.186Z | 14.5% | 8.1% | -6.4 pp |
| 2026-08-14T09:20:12.927Z | 14.5% | 8.1% | -6.4 pp |
| 2026-08-14T09:31:37.538Z | 14.5% | 4.5% | -10.0 pp |
| 2026-08-14T09:33:43.793Z | 14.5% | 4.0% | -10.5 pp |
| 2026-08-14T09:35:36.269Z | 14.5% | 4.6% | -9.9 pp |
| 2026-08-14T09:40:03.088Z | 14.5% | 4.2% | -10.3 pp |
| 2026-08-14T09:52:42.159Z | 14.5% | 4.4% | -10.1 pp |
| 2026-08-14T10:03:37.178Z | 14.5% | 4.1% | -10.4 pp |
| 2026-08-14T10:08:42.442Z | 14.5% | 4.7% | -9.8 pp |
| 2026-08-14T10:19:42.051Z | 14.5% | 7.0% | -7.5 pp |
| 2026-08-14T10:28:08.650Z | 14.5% | 6.1% | -8.4 pp |
| 2026-08-14T10:36:37.894Z | 14.5% | 7.1% | -7.4 pp |
| 2026-08-14T10:42:25.609Z | 6.5% | 6.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-14T10:55:40.817Z | 6.5% | 3.6% | -2.9 pp |
| 2026-08-14T11:07:37.639Z | 6.5% | 3.5% | -3.0 pp |
| 2026-08-14T11:24:12.265Z | 6.5% | 4.4% | -2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-14T11:33:47.414Z | 6.5% | 4.0% | -2.5 pp |
| 2026-08-14T11:40:44.053Z | 6.5% | 4.9% | -1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-14T11:48:22.533Z | 6.5% | 3.4% | -3.1 pp |
| 2026-08-14T11:54:40.214Z | 6.5% | 4.1% | -2.4 pp |
| 2026-08-14T12:04:46.506Z | 6.5% | 2.5% | -4.0 pp |
| 2026-08-14T12:08:38.435Z | 6.5% | 2.1% | -4.4 pp |
| 2026-08-14T12:13:03.099Z | 6.5% | 1.2% | -5.3 pp |
| 2026-08-14T12:22:36.300Z | 6.5% | 1.6% | -4.9 pp |
| 2026-08-14T12:26:59.527Z | 6.5% | 2.4% | -4.1 pp |
| 2026-08-14T12:34:45.588Z | 6.5% | 2.3% | -4.2 pp |
| 2026-08-14T12:38:36.277Z | 6.5% | 1.6% | -4.9 pp |
| 2026-08-14T12:44:50.810Z | 6.5% | 0.9% | -5.6 pp |
| 2026-08-14T12:52:39.187Z | 6.5% | 0.8% | -5.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T12:54:18.229Z | 6.5% | 0.8% | -5.7 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 12:52 PM | 14.5% | 0.8% | −14 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 14, 12:44 PM | 14.5% | 0.9% | −14 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 14, 12:38 PM | 14.5% | 1.6% | −13 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 14, 12:34 PM | 14.5% | 2.3% | −12 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 14, 12:26 PM | 14.5% | 2.4% | −12 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 14, 12:22 PM | 14.5% | 1.6% | −13 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 14, 12:13 PM | 14.5% | 1.2% | −13 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 14, 12:08 PM | 14.5% | 2.1% | −12 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 13 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 14 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 13 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 14 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.