Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Falcons Force - Map 1 Winner
Ends: Jul 28, 2026, 21:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 28, 2026, 19:13 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
MISA ESPORTS probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T17:29:49.045Z | 24.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T17:34:57.314Z | 15.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T17:40:02.003Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T17:45:15.675Z | 0.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T17:50:23.638Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T17:55:26.080Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T18:00:58.006Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T18:06:02.116Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T18:11:06.901Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T18:16:09.392Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T18:21:22.215Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T18:26:25.856Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T18:31:30.801Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T18:36:38.020Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T18:41:40.305Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T18:46:45.275Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T18:51:50.271Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T18:56:55.442Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T19:01:56.957Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T19:07:02.160Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T19:12:06.301Z | 0.1% | - | — |
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Winners match between Misa Esports and Falcons Force in the Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Group D, initially scheduled for July 28 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Misa Esports" if Misa Esports win Map 1 against Falcons Force. This market will resolve to "Falcons Force" if Falcons Force win Map 1 against Misa Esports. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 1. If Map 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.