UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs. Aleksandar Rakic (Heavyweight, Main Card)
Ends: Aug 2, 2026, 03:59 UTCMarket data: Aug 1, 2026, 09:02 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
MARCIN TYBURA probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01T08:09:59.624Z | 23.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T08:15:41.273Z | 23.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T08:21:25.484Z | 23.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T08:27:43.073Z | 23.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T08:32:59.035Z | 23.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T08:38:10.932Z | 23.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T08:43:30.759Z | 23.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T08:48:36.798Z | 23.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T08:56:08.668Z | 23.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T09:02:40.418Z | 23.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T09:02:42.206Z | 23.5% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Marcin Tybura" if Marcin Tybura is officially declared the winner of the fight against Aleksandar Rakic at UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez, scheduled for August 1, 2026. It will resolve to "Aleksandar Rakic" if Aleksandar Rakic is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 15, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.