Putin out as President of Russia by July 31, 2026?
Ends: Jul 31, 2026, 18:30 UTCMarket data: Jul 28, 2026, 22:34 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27T07:04:52.752Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T07:21:00.729Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T07:36:53.694Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T08:08:56.796Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T08:29:35.017Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T09:03:06.533Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T09:18:23.203Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T09:33:36.202Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T09:48:45.894Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T10:04:22.985Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T10:19:35.608Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T10:34:50.852Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T10:50:05.796Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T11:05:24.626Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T11:20:39.716Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T19:05:11.551Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T19:20:24.739Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T19:35:40.000Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T19:50:51.191Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T20:06:51.379Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T20:22:06.400Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T20:42:34.014Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T20:57:46.292Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T21:13:07.033Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T21:28:23.249Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T21:44:02.226Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T21:59:44.940Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T22:15:05.766Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T22:30:15.851Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T22:34:05.632Z | 0.1% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.