Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on August 5?
Ends: Aug 5, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 5, 2026, 06:48 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05T05:59:22.373Z | 13.5% | 14.7% | +1.2 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:01:28.745Z | 13.5% | 14.6% | +1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:03:33.065Z | 12.5% | 13.5% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:04:33.785Z | 12.5% | 13.5% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:05:36.042Z | 12.5% | 14.1% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:09:35.214Z | 12.5% | 13.4% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:09:43.370Z | 12.5% | 13.4% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:11:33.755Z | 12.5% | 13.9% | +1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:13:49.519Z | 11.5% | 14.1% | +2.6 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:14:48.439Z | 11.5% | 13.2% | +1.7 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:15:33.137Z | 11.5% | 13.2% | +1.7 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:17:30.282Z | 11.0% | 12.7% | +1.7 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:19:41.891Z | 11.0% | 12.4% | +1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:19:57.145Z | 11.0% | 12.4% | +1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:24:33.484Z | 10.5% | 11.3% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:25:01.717Z | 10.5% | 11.3% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:26:30.784Z | 10.5% | 11.6% | +1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:28:31.249Z | 10.5% | 11.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:30:08.546Z | 10.5% | 11.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:32:35.630Z | 10.5% | 12.1% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:34:37.168Z | 11.5% | 11.4% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:35:13.979Z | 11.5% | 11.4% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:37:25.409Z | 11.5% | 12.3% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:39:29.925Z | 11.5% | 12.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:40:18.184Z | 11.5% | 12.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:41:32.754Z | 11.5% | 11.7% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:43:30.361Z | 11.5% | 11.9% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:45:23.744Z | 11.5% | 11.4% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:45:35.115Z | 11.5% | 11.4% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T06:48:18.304Z | 11.5% | 11.4% | -0.1 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 05, 06:45 AM | 11.5% | 11.4% | −0.1 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 05, 06:43 AM | 11.5% | 11.9% | +0.4 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 05, 06:41 AM | 11.5% | 11.7% | +0.2 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 05, 06:39 AM | 11.5% | 12.0% | +0.5 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 05, 06:37 AM | 11.5% | 12.3% | +0.8 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 05, 06:34 AM | 11.5% | 11.4% | −0.1 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 05, 06:32 AM | 10.5% | 12.1% | +1.6 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 05, 06:28 AM | 10.5% | 11.0% | +0.5 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.