Ethereum Up or Down on August 20?
Ends: Aug 20, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 21, 2026, 10:13 UTCResult: UPResolved: Aug 20, 2026, 16:13 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20T12:34:30.131Z | 99.0% | 100.0% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T12:37:24.813Z | 99.0% | 100.0% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T12:37:26.024Z | 99.0% | 100.0% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T13:02:45.193Z | 99.0% | 100.0% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T13:05:32.146Z | 99.0% | 100.0% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T13:08:27.196Z | 99.0% | 100.0% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T13:10:57.143Z | 99.0% | 100.0% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T13:37:06.446Z | 99.0% | 100.0% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T13:39:12.456Z | 99.0% | 100.0% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T13:42:22.879Z | 99.0% | 100.0% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T14:09:11.682Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T14:12:43.305Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T14:19:08.769Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T14:39:51.332Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T14:39:52.953Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T14:42:24.260Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T14:58:44.403Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T15:05:19.128Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T15:08:07.436Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T15:11:42.982Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T15:16:06.841Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T15:19:10.263Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T15:24:06.160Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T15:27:17.845Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T15:34:15.117Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T15:37:06.991Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T15:49:36.412Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T15:51:25.745Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T15:54:08.699Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T16:18:21.154Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | -0.0 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 03:54 PM | 100.0% | 100.0% | −0.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 20, 03:51 PM | 100.0% | 100.0% | −0.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 20, 03:49 PM | 100.0% | 100.0% | −0.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 20, 03:37 PM | 100.0% | 100.0% | −0.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 20, 03:34 PM | 100.0% | 100.0% | −0.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 20, 03:27 PM | 100.0% | 100.0% | −0.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 20, 03:24 PM | 100.0% | 100.0% | −0.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 20, 03:19 PM | 100.0% | 100.0% | −0.0 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 19 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 20 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 19 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 20 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.