Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs 1win - Game 1 Winner
Ends: Jul 30, 2026, 13:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 30, 2026, 11:07 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
NIGMA GALAXY probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30T09:51:50.217Z | 34.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T09:56:56.600Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T10:02:03.395Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T10:07:33.250Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T10:13:14.510Z | 16.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T10:18:21.484Z | 1.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T10:23:59.906Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T10:29:12.583Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T10:34:27.877Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T10:39:50.795Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T10:44:57.236Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T10:50:07.521Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T10:55:27.189Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T11:00:55.182Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T11:07:19.036Z | 0.1% | - | — |
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Nigma Galaxy and 1win in the 1win Essence Group B, initially scheduled for July 30 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Nigma Galaxy" if Nigma Galaxy win Game 1 against 1win. This market will resolve to "1win" if 1win win Game 1 against Nigma Galaxy. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.