Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C or below on July 29?
Ends: Jul 29, 2026, 12:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 29, 2026, 08:12 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T05:46:36.510Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T05:51:46.424Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T05:56:48.468Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T06:01:51.385Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T06:06:56.476Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T06:12:01.490Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T06:17:06.746Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T06:22:16.893Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T06:27:21.385Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T06:32:22.325Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T06:37:26.498Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T06:42:32.103Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T06:47:36.973Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T06:52:47.055Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T06:57:53.699Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T07:03:19.494Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T07:08:28.841Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T07:13:33.452Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T07:18:36.843Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T07:23:46.135Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T07:29:30.579Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T07:34:32.100Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T07:39:37.421Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T07:44:50.749Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T07:49:57.783Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T07:55:03.495Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T08:00:14.550Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T08:05:17.477Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T08:10:22.572Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T08:12:51.316Z | 0.1% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Gimhae Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPK. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.