Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
Ends: Sep 13, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 23, 2026, 18:03 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26T21:59:30.683Z | 78.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T00:59:38.132Z | 78.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T04:56:11.114Z | 78.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T10:55:05.443Z | 78.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-23T04:36:54.019Z | 90.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-23T09:02:38.345Z | 89.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-23T15:11:10.991Z | 91.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-23T18:03:25.179Z | 92.5% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.