Trump out as President by July 31?
Ends: Jul 31, 2026, 23:59 UTCMarket data: Jul 28, 2026, 12:38 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T10:11:12.402Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:16:17.232Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:21:22.815Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:26:27.379Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:31:32.587Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:36:35.400Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:41:54.718Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:46:57.445Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:52:02.403Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:57:08.307Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:02:12.526Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:07:17.578Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:12:22.499Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:17:27.726Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:22:32.618Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:27:37.439Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:32:42.464Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:37:53.040Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:42:57.560Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:48:02.894Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:53:05.690Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:58:07.648Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:03:13.699Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:08:21.029Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:13:22.825Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:18:27.932Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:24:10.911Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:29:12.966Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:34:28.489Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:38:58.792Z | 0.1% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.