NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors?
Ends: Oct 22, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 31, 2026, 08:51 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31T05:04:29.561Z | 5.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T05:11:19.588Z | 5.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T05:17:04.459Z | 5.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T05:25:16.220Z | 5.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T05:35:48.088Z | 5.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T05:41:50.984Z | 5.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T05:47:44.304Z | 5.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T05:53:48.230Z | 5.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T05:59:20.130Z | 5.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T06:06:24.241Z | 5.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T06:14:06.437Z | 5.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T06:27:08.070Z | 5.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T06:37:07.218Z | 5.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T06:42:33.927Z | 5.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T06:48:09.704Z | 5.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T06:56:24.667Z | 5.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T07:02:05.023Z | 5.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T07:07:24.080Z | 5.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T07:25:09.678Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T07:31:00.026Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T07:44:34.459Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T07:49:58.940Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T07:55:12.413Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T08:00:24.342Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T08:05:30.864Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T08:25:14.441Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T08:31:21.598Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T08:42:38.408Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T08:47:46.217Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T08:51:59.992Z | 4.5% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Stephen Curry is not rostered by the Golden State Warriors before October 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Stephen Curry retires, is released, is traded, or is otherwise not a member of the Golden State Warriors official player roster, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Stephen Curry is listed on the official roster of the Golden State Warriors as of October 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, regardless of his playing status, this market will resolve to “No.” The primary resolution source will be official information from the NBA, Golden State Warriors, and/or Stephen Curry; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.