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Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?

Ends: Aug 31, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 26, 2026, 05:10 UTC

VERDICTINSUFFICIENT DATA

POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR

Probability divergence over time

POLYMARKET YES 99.3%MARX FAIR YES -
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair0%25%50%75%100%
MARX FAIRFair Price was not published: reliable data is insufficient.
Jul 19, 10:58 AMJul 28, 09:31 PMAug 07, 08:04 AMAug 16, 06:37 PMAug 26, 05:10 AM UTC

YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-19T10:58:44.816Z88.5%-—
2026-07-20T20:58:29.960Z90.5%-—
2026-07-26T08:57:10.983Z90.5%-—
2026-07-27T16:57:17.581Z90.5%-—
2026-07-29T23:59:32.919Z93.5%-—
2026-08-01T07:58:20.778Z95.5%-—
2026-08-03T14:57:59.573Z93.5%-—
2026-08-05T21:59:23.954Z93.5%-—
2026-08-08T04:59:01.534Z91.5%-—
2026-08-10T11:55:23.101Z93.5%-—
2026-08-12T18:56:35.496Z93.5%-—
2026-08-15T01:57:01.945Z95.5%-—
2026-08-17T08:54:06.076Z96.4%-—
2026-08-19T15:55:39.364Z98.7%-—
2026-08-21T23:57:36.314Z97.8%-—
2026-08-24T06:40:51.507Z98.2%-—
2026-08-26T05:10:57.054Z99.3%-—

2026-08-04T21:25:31.010888Z — Official event update detected

2026-08-04T21:26:05.790464Z — Official event update detected

2026-08-04T21:26:26.434062Z — Official event update detected

2026-08-04T21:26:36.223395Z — Official event update detected

2026-08-05T00:09:23.777206Z — Anthropic AI used fake profiles to target people in hack then hid the evidence

MARKET TIMELINE

Events are placed when they became available to the system

5 events

THE PIVOT

Auditable Marx and crowd reaction history

  1. Official event update detectedOfficial Event Data
    MARX FAIR
    100.0% → 100.0%
    REACTION
    1216217.27s
    CROWD LAG
    1146186s

    2026-08-04T21:25:02.867093+00:00 — Official event update detected. Marx Fair moved from 100.0% to 100.0%; Polymarket was 93.5%. Reaction Time 1216217269 ms. Crowd Lag 1146186 seconds.

  2. Official event update detectedOfficial Event Data
    MARX FAIR
    100.0% → 100.0%
    REACTION
    1216207.44s
    CROWD LAG
    1146195s

    2026-08-04T21:26:26.434062+00:00 — Official event update detected. Marx Fair moved from 100.0% to 100.0%; Polymarket was 93.5%. Reaction Time 1216207437 ms. Crowd Lag 1146195 seconds.

  3. Official event update detectedOfficial Event Data
    MARX FAIR
    95.9% → 100.0%
    REACTION
    1216186.72s
    CROWD LAG
    983952s

    2026-08-04T21:26:05.790464+00:00 — Official event update detected. Marx Fair moved from 95.9% to 100.0%; Polymarket was 93.5%. Reaction Time 1216186723 ms. Crowd Lag 983952 seconds.

  4. Official event update detectedOfficial Event Data
    MARX FAIR
    93.5% → 95.9%
    REACTION
    1216152.13s
    CROWD LAG
    582875s

    2026-08-04T21:25:31.010888+00:00 — Official event update detected. Marx Fair moved from 93.5% to 95.9%; Polymarket was 93.5%. Reaction Time 1216152127 ms. Crowd Lag 582875 seconds.

INSUFFICIENT DATA

  • No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
  • Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
  • A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.

There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.

KEY RISKS

  • New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.

RESOLUTION CRITERIA

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.

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