Valorant: VARREL vs DetonatioN FocusMe (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega
Ends: Jul 30, 2026, 14:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 30, 2026, 12:10 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
VARREL probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30T09:33:01.475Z | 52.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T09:38:06.368Z | 53.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T09:43:21.801Z | 54.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T09:48:34.632Z | 60.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T09:53:42.401Z | 51.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T09:58:48.034Z | 59.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T10:04:00.119Z | 69.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T10:09:31.567Z | 79.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T10:14:40.409Z | 79.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T10:20:03.976Z | 68.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T10:25:11.889Z | 56.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T10:30:31.252Z | 56.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T10:36:34.722Z | 47.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T10:41:43.643Z | 39.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T10:46:53.291Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T10:52:25.789Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T10:57:46.107Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T11:03:04.571Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T11:08:17.861Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T11:14:12.958Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T11:19:19.702Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T11:24:24.932Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T11:29:33.919Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T11:35:02.502Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T11:40:14.271Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T11:45:23.274Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T11:51:53.964Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T11:57:05.309Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T12:02:09.021Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T12:08:04.646Z | 0.1% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the Valorant match between VARREL and DetonatioN FocusMe in the VCT Pacific Group Omega, initially scheduled for July 30 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "VARREL" if VARREL win the match against DetonatioN FocusMe. This market will resolve to "DetonatioN FocusMe" if DetonatioN FocusMe win the match against VARREL. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.