Phan Thiet 4: Blake Ellis vs Hiroki Moriya
Ends: Sep 21, 2026, 03:00 UTCMarket data: Sep 15, 2026, 23:04 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
BLAKE ELLIS probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15T16:09:07.239Z | 76.0% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T18:51:04.488Z | 73.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T23:04:16.603Z | 77.5% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the tennis match between Blake Ellis and Hiroki Moriya in the Phan Thiet 4, originally scheduled for September 13, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Blake Ellis' if Blake Ellis advances against Hiroki Moriya. This market will resolve to 'Hiroki Moriya' if Hiroki Moriya advances against Blake Ellis. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.