Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner
Ends: Jul 30, 2026, 19:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 30, 2026, 15:03 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
LIQUID probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30T12:34:08.254Z | 29.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T12:39:14.316Z | 29.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T12:44:29.429Z | 26.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T12:50:06.570Z | 31.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T12:55:12.150Z | 30.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T13:00:24.322Z | 27.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T13:05:56.782Z | 39.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T13:11:14.701Z | 12.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T13:16:19.392Z | 12.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T13:21:32.101Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T13:26:39.858Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T13:31:50.019Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T13:37:25.070Z | 8.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T13:42:35.280Z | 0.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T13:47:39.789Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T13:52:56.311Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T13:58:05.734Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T14:03:14.700Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T14:08:53.632Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T14:14:15.266Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T14:19:21.414Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T14:24:26.488Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T14:29:29.438Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T14:34:32.506Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T14:39:56.383Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T14:45:04.825Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T14:50:14.686Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T14:55:36.665Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T15:01:12.751Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T15:03:46.454Z | 0.1% | - | — |
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 4 match between Liquid and Spirit in the BLAST Bounty Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 31 at 11:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Liquid" if Liquid win Map 1 against Spirit. This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit win Map 1 against Liquid. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 1. If Map 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.