Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?
Ends: Aug 4, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 31, 2026, 16:22 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31T07:44:34.459Z | 18.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T08:00:24.342Z | 18.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T08:25:14.441Z | 17.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T08:47:46.218Z | 17.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T09:05:32.884Z | 18.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T09:23:33.787Z | 18.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T09:41:05.677Z | 18.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T09:57:19.383Z | 18.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T10:16:48.490Z | 18.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T10:34:04.514Z | 18.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T10:44:21.230Z | 18.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T11:01:55.285Z | 18.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T11:22:52.110Z | 15.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T11:43:17.906Z | 15.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T11:59:09.249Z | 15.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T12:16:11.605Z | 15.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T12:33:16.947Z | 15.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T12:49:19.231Z | 15.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T13:06:16.335Z | 15.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T13:27:20.390Z | 15.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T13:43:21.671Z | 15.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T14:00:59.124Z | 15.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T14:16:02.928Z | 15.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T14:39:59.378Z | 16.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T14:56:14.097Z | 16.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T15:13:03.071Z | 16.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T15:33:09.887Z | 16.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T15:56:25.296Z | 16.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T16:21:29.113Z | 16.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T16:22:45.685Z | 16.5% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.