Bitcoin Up or Down on August 12?
Ends: Aug 12, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 12, 2026, 05:17 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12T03:00:25.127Z | 58.5% | 60.7% | +2.2 pp |
| 2026-08-12T03:06:45.588Z | 64.5% | 64.3% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-12T03:10:37.874Z | 64.5% | 63.2% | -1.3 pp |
| 2026-08-12T03:21:35.456Z | 64.5% | 60.2% | -4.3 pp |
| 2026-08-12T03:28:51.208Z | 64.5% | 62.5% | -2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-12T03:33:41.006Z | 64.5% | 64.4% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-12T03:37:39.204Z | 64.5% | 66.9% | +2.4 pp |
| 2026-08-12T03:39:34.772Z | 64.5% | 67.4% | +2.9 pp |
| 2026-08-12T03:47:08.648Z | 64.5% | 65.7% | +1.2 pp |
| 2026-08-12T03:51:40.869Z | 64.5% | 65.4% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-12T03:53:35.767Z | 64.5% | 65.3% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-12T03:59:57.336Z | 64.5% | 67.5% | +3.0 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:04:39.868Z | 64.5% | 67.5% | +3.0 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:10:35.381Z | 64.5% | 65.1% | +0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:16:48.269Z | 64.5% | 64.6% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:18:35.297Z | 64.5% | 65.1% | +0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:22:36.875Z | 64.5% | 68.7% | +4.2 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:24:46.851Z | 64.5% | 70.4% | +5.9 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:30:42.171Z | 64.5% | 66.8% | +2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:34:41.271Z | 64.5% | 61.8% | -2.7 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:36:39.697Z | 64.5% | 61.9% | -2.6 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:43:53.197Z | 64.5% | 63.3% | -1.2 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:46:40.619Z | 64.5% | 63.3% | -1.2 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:50:35.750Z | 64.5% | 66.0% | +1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-12T04:54:39.450Z | 64.5% | 67.3% | +2.8 pp |
| 2026-08-12T05:01:35.461Z | 64.5% | 64.1% | -0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-12T05:04:23.161Z | 64.5% | 63.9% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-12T05:07:35.582Z | 64.5% | 61.5% | -3.0 pp |
| 2026-08-12T05:15:45.981Z | 64.5% | 67.2% | +2.7 pp |
| 2026-08-12T05:17:00.110Z | 64.5% | 67.2% | +2.7 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 05:15 AM | 58.5% | 67.2% | +8.7 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 12, 05:07 AM | 58.5% | 61.5% | +3.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 12, 05:04 AM | 58.5% | 63.9% | +5.4 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 12, 05:01 AM | 58.5% | 64.1% | +5.6 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 12, 04:54 AM | 58.5% | 67.3% | +8.8 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 12, 04:50 AM | 58.5% | 66.0% | +7.5 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 12, 04:46 AM | 58.5% | 63.3% | +4.8 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 12, 04:43 AM | 58.5% | 63.3% | +4.8 pp | BUY UP |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 11 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 12 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 11 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 12 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.