Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
Ends: Sep 30, 2026, 23:59 UTCMarket data: Aug 17, 2026, 05:29 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09T09:59:18.465Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T11:59:21.865Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T16:56:24.691Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T21:57:18.736Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T01:55:02.419Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-16T18:30:27.932Z | 1.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-16T20:33:37.570Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T01:02:56.535Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T05:29:41.277Z | 0.9% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.