Bitcoin Up or Down on September 16?
Ends: Sep 16, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Sep 16, 2026, 15:32 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16T12:10:38.410Z | 28.5% | 33.7% | +5.2 pp |
| 2026-09-16T12:11:02.138Z | 28.5% | 33.7% | +5.2 pp |
| 2026-09-16T12:21:16.776Z | 28.5% | 24.8% | -3.7 pp |
| 2026-09-16T12:25:03.190Z | 28.5% | 24.3% | -4.2 pp |
| 2026-09-16T12:27:20.435Z | 28.5% | 18.0% | -10.5 pp |
| 2026-09-16T12:50:06.039Z | 28.5% | 17.2% | -11.3 pp |
| 2026-09-16T12:54:43.612Z | 28.5% | 17.0% | -11.5 pp |
| 2026-09-16T12:57:28.951Z | 28.5% | 15.9% | -12.6 pp |
| 2026-09-16T13:17:02.560Z | 28.5% | 7.1% | -21.4 pp |
| 2026-09-16T13:23:05.389Z | 1.9% | 7.3% | +5.4 pp |
| 2026-09-16T13:29:04.943Z | 1.9% | 6.8% | +4.9 pp |
| 2026-09-16T13:29:08.167Z | 1.9% | 6.8% | +4.9 pp |
| 2026-09-16T13:44:19.318Z | 1.9% | 3.6% | +1.7 pp |
| 2026-09-16T13:50:40.741Z | 1.9% | 6.4% | +4.5 pp |
| 2026-09-16T13:51:23.967Z | 1.9% | 6.4% | +4.5 pp |
| 2026-09-16T13:56:23.537Z | 1.9% | 3.6% | +1.7 pp |
| 2026-09-16T14:16:16.217Z | 1.9% | 0.6% | -1.3 pp |
| 2026-09-16T14:21:20.679Z | 1.9% | 0.7% | -1.2 pp |
| 2026-09-16T14:31:38.145Z | 1.9% | 2.8% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-09-16T14:43:51.470Z | 1.9% | 0.9% | -1.0 pp |
| 2026-09-16T14:50:47.835Z | 1.9% | 0.2% | -1.7 pp |
| 2026-09-16T14:52:49.713Z | 1.9% | 0.1% | -1.8 pp |
| 2026-09-16T14:54:53.437Z | 1.9% | 0.2% | -1.7 pp |
| 2026-09-16T14:55:40.355Z | 1.9% | 0.2% | -1.7 pp |
| 2026-09-16T15:01:03.933Z | 1.9% | 0.2% | -1.7 pp |
| 2026-09-16T15:05:01.231Z | 1.9% | 0.2% | -1.7 pp |
| 2026-09-16T15:11:56.501Z | 1.9% | 0.0% | -1.9 pp |
| 2026-09-16T15:25:27.178Z | 1.9% | 0.1% | -1.8 pp |
| 2026-09-16T15:31:17.268Z | 1.9% | 0.0% | -1.9 pp |
| 2026-09-16T15:32:18.001Z | 1.9% | 0.0% | -1.9 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 03:31 PM | 28.5% | 0.0% | −28 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 16, 03:25 PM | 28.5% | 0.1% | −28 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 16, 03:11 PM | 28.5% | 0.0% | −28 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 16, 03:05 PM | 28.5% | 0.2% | −28 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 16, 03:01 PM | 28.5% | 0.2% | −28 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 16, 02:55 PM | 28.5% | 0.2% | −28 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 16, 02:54 PM | 28.5% | 0.2% | −28 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 16, 02:52 PM | 28.5% | 0.1% | −28 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 15 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 16 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 15 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 16 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.