Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Ends: Dec 31, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 13, 2026, 15:02 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26T21:57:23.748Z | 85.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T01:57:25.977Z | 85.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T06:57:07.911Z | 85.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T11:56:39.507Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T02:58:57.370Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T16:54:17.618Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T18:59:15.461Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T23:57:05.755Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T03:57:31.273Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T08:57:33.112Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T12:59:05.510Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T17:47:47.460Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T21:58:22.076Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T02:59:09.875Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T09:56:56.600Z | 88.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T11:57:05.305Z | 88.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T16:57:20.980Z | 88.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T20:57:55.083Z | 89.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T01:57:48.553Z | 89.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T05:59:20.130Z | 92.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T14:59:10.302Z | 90.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T18:59:09.740Z | 89.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T20:58:51.383Z | 89.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T13:56:31.600Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T16:29:44.015Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T21:00:31.083Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T01:32:45.318Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T06:03:02.730Z | 86.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T10:32:10.029Z | 85.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T15:02:10.423Z | 79.5% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.