Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)
Ends: Aug 26, 2026, 19:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 26, 2026, 05:10 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
REAL MADRID CF probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26T03:08:00.040Z | 53.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-26T03:48:26.410Z | 53.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-26T05:10:57.054Z | 53.5% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
In the upcoming La Liga game, scheduled for August 26 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Real Madrid CF" if Real Madrid CF win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Real Sociedad de Fútbol". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on laliga.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.