Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends: Jan 1, 2027, 05:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 28, 2026, 16:34 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T04:03:52.832Z | 14.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T04:29:12.000Z | 14.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T04:54:32.509Z | 14.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T05:24:57.027Z | 14.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T05:50:27.392Z | 14.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T06:15:47.161Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T06:41:12.529Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T07:11:42.567Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T07:37:02.357Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:02:27.355Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:27:47.455Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:58:47.431Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:24:12.216Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:49:33.766Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:15:02.917Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:45:47.423Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:11:32.431Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:37:12.725Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:02:37.816Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:33:09.332Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:59:13.374Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T13:24:43.146Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T13:50:03.405Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T14:20:27.958Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T14:45:48.271Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:11:18.407Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:36:42.854Z | 13.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T16:07:11.548Z | 13.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T16:32:37.172Z | 13.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T16:34:35.684Z | 13.0% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.