Bitcoin Up or Down on August 1?
Ends: Aug 1, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 1, 2026, 02:18 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31T23:31:36.160Z | 72.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T23:39:53.213Z | 73.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T23:48:52.024Z | 65.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T23:55:54.349Z | 63.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T23:57:44.949Z | 62.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T00:02:18.565Z | 63.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T00:10:58.407Z | 69.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T00:17:31.408Z | 71.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T00:20:19.891Z | 69.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T00:29:33.140Z | 73.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T00:34:55.219Z | 73.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T00:38:42.323Z | 73.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T00:50:12.429Z | 75.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T00:52:29.945Z | 75.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T00:59:32.935Z | 75.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T01:02:57.226Z | 71.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T01:11:15.511Z | 72.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T01:31:09.479Z | 69.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T01:32:40.364Z | 69.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T01:41:06.423Z | 72.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T01:41:27.477Z | 72.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T01:43:44.282Z | 72.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T01:47:12.359Z | 73.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T01:48:40.282Z | 72.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T01:53:33.493Z | 73.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T01:56:26.918Z | 73.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T01:58:00.514Z | 73.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T02:00:52.127Z | 75.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T02:14:15.312Z | 75.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T02:18:42.222Z | 75.5% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 31 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 1 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 31 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 1 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.