Bitcoin Up or Down on August 1?
Ends: Aug 1, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 1, 2026, 01:32 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31T21:58:02.089Z | 73.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T22:03:40.607Z | 68.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T22:12:59.319Z | 74.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T22:19:42.875Z | 73.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T22:28:33.334Z | 72.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T22:33:39.781Z | 72.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T22:42:32.410Z | 68.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T22:54:51.673Z | 67.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T23:01:42.441Z | 68.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T23:04:40.733Z | 68.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T23:09:37.828Z | 72.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T23:13:32.800Z | 72.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T23:21:13.868Z | 74.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T23:31:36.160Z | 72.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T23:39:53.213Z | 73.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T23:48:52.024Z | 65.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T23:55:54.349Z | 63.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T23:58:40.226Z | 63.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T00:03:40.689Z | 68.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T00:17:31.408Z | 71.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T00:24:08.347Z | 72.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T00:29:33.140Z | 73.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T00:37:56.357Z | 73.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T00:45:04.913Z | 74.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T00:52:29.945Z | 75.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T00:59:32.935Z | 75.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T01:02:57.226Z | 71.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T01:16:33.198Z | 72.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T01:31:40.506Z | 69.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T01:32:17.578Z | 69.5% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 31 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 1 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 31 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 1 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.