Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
Ends: Sep 20, 2026, 23:59 UTCMarket data: Aug 19, 2026, 23:24 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11T20:54:26.675Z | 59.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T01:56:59.890Z | 56.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T05:55:43.582Z | 56.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T10:56:54.124Z | 29.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T14:56:00.617Z | 48.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T19:56:15.837Z | 47.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-19T05:53:53.965Z | 61.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-19T09:52:26.851Z | 62.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-19T14:25:35.176Z | 61.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-19T18:55:36.179Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-19T23:24:55.686Z | 57.5% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Russia party list receives the greatest number of valid votes of any party list in each individual region in the 2026 Russian legislative elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a region means any federal subject of the Russian Federation for which results of the federal party-list vote are separately reported by the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve solely according to the valid votes received by each party list in each region. The number of seats won by any party, including any seats won in single-member constituencies, will have no bearing on resolution. If the United Russia party list is tied with multiple party lists for the greatest number of valid votes in a region, United Russia will be considered to have received the greatest number of valid votes in that region for the purposes of this market. If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.